WASHINGTON — Confirmation of Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) leader Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as Department of Health and Human Services secretary likely would raise consumer antipathy toward processed foods and the companies that make them, according to a report by food industry analysts at investment firm TD Cowen.

In Senate hearings on Jan. 29 and 30, Kennedy repeatedly pointed to the food industry — including packaged food manufacturers and fast food operators like McDonald’s — as behind the growing incidence of chronic health conditions such as diabetes, heart disease, obesity, autoimmune disorders and others. TD Cowen’s analysis indicates that, if RFK Jr. is confirmed, his views could heighten momentum for the Trump administration’s MAHA initiative, whose proponents see processed foods as detrimental to health and favor stronger oversight of food companies as part of a national health care strategy shift from treatment to prevention.

“The administration’s MAHA effort has gained political support from liberals and conservatives alike because people are upset about the rise of chronic disease and ready to blame ultra-processed foods for it,” TD Cowen said in its Jan. 30 report, titled Making Sense of MAHA: What’s Next. “Whether justified or not, we believe increased scrutiny over the role of processed foods in the health crisis will seep further into mainstream attitudes and erode brand values.”

In a January survey of 2,500 consumers, TD Cowen found that 75% of respondents deem the processed food industry as “very” (38%) or “moderately” (37%) responsible for US health and wellness problems, with 13% considering the industry “slightly responsible.” Similarly, 38% of those polled said they have become more concerned about the impact of processed food on US health and wellness over the past six months.

Also, just over a third (34%) of consumers believed medical researchers shouldn’t receive funding from processed food companies.

“Our proprietary consumer survey indicates that the MAHA initiative is gaining steam and fueling rising distrust of processed food products,” TD Cowen said.

Meanwhile, TD Cowen/NielsenIQ retail sales data suggest that consumer attitudes are exhibiting a greater affinity for fresh foods at the expense of center-store food products.

“Our research indicates tangible evidence of how consumers are thinking differently about processed foods and their food consumption,” TD Cowen said. “For example, spending on ‘fresh foods’ at the grocery store accelerated to 6.6% in the past 12 weeks, compared to only 0.8% for frozen and shelf stable.”

In his second confirmation hearing, before the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions (HELP) Committee, Kennedy said “there is no single culprit for chronic disease” and that he’s not “the enemy of food producers.” However, as in his Senate Finance Committee hearing the previous day, he singled out the processed food industry as a key focus of efforts to squelch chronic disease if confirmed as HHS chief.

“We will make sure our tax dollars support healthy foods, and we will scrutinize the chemical additives to our food supply,” Kennedy said. “We’ll remove the financial conflicts of interest from the agencies. We’ll create an honest, unbiased, science-driven HHS accountable to the president, to the Congress and to the American people. We'll reverse the chronic disease epidemic and put the nation back on the road to good health.”

Kennedy decried the contents of US processed foods after Republican Senator Tommy Tuberville of Alabama asked him about the Food and Drug Administration’s recent ban on Red No. 3 coloring in food and beverages. As in the prior hearing, RFK Jr. cited too many ingredients in products like McDonald’s french fries and Kellogg’s Froot Loops cereal — the latter including “red dye, blue dye, yellow dye” — compared with fewer ingredients and vegetable-based dyes in the products’ Canadian and European counterparts.

“We are allowing these companies — because of their influence over this body, over our regulatory agencies — to mass poison American children,” Kennedy said. “And that’s wrong. It needs to end, and I believe I’m the one person who’s able to end it.”

He later said effective agency research on the causes of chronic disease will require removing conflicts of interest “focused on advancing the mercantile interests of the food industry and the pharmaceutical industry rather than the health of the American people.”

Given Kennedy’s comments on obesity, Democratic New Jersey Senator Andy Kim asked for his stance on GLP-1 weight-loss drugs, which have been shown to curb appetite and reorient users’ cravings for sweet and salty foods toward healthier fresh foods. Kennedy called GLP-1s “miracle drugs” but noted they should primarily be prescribed to diabetics and the obese and not be a “frontline intervention” for young children. He also warned of side effects and a potential “tsunami” if government coverage of the drugs gets extended to those with only excess weight.

“If every American who qualifies for GLP-1s by being overweight — 74% of our population — asked for them and the federal government was paying for it, it would cost over a trillion dollars a year,” Kennedy said. “It would double the insurance costs for employers in this country.”

As in the previous Senate hearing, Kennedy reiterated his opposition to purchases of processed foods and sugary drinks through the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) and school lunch programs. But according to TD Cowen’s report, the administration’s stance on that issue remains uncertain.

“At this point, it is unclear whether the administration fully supports RFK’s proposal to limit SNAP benefits for processed foods and soda,” TD Cowen said. “The MAHA movement’s push to reduce eligibility of spending on unhealthy categories aligns with the Republican administration’s broader efforts to reduce government spending, perhaps making the change easier than before. Already the elimination of COVID-19 emergency allotments has reduced average monthly benefits by 19% from the peak in 2022, even while reflecting COLA (cost of living adjustment).